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Cross-sectional Average Fertility (CAF)

- Properties and Comparison with Other Measures

Vol.38 No.3, 2015.9, 113-139 (27 pages)
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Abstract
The current study examines the properties of cross-sectional average fertility (CAF). The CAF is a recently suggested summary fertility measure (Kye, 2012) and summarizes the current and past fertility experiences of currently reproductive women and relates to their mean family size. I examine the properties of CAF and compare it with other summary fertility measures using the Human Fertility Database (HFD) and simulated data. Because CAF is a cross-sectional average measure such as cross-sectional average length of life (CAL) and singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM), I also discuss the shared properties of these measures. Comparison of CAF with other measures shows the following. First, CAF is the most robust to period tempo changes, and it consequently shows the smoothest trends among the measures considered. In particular, this is the case during the period of monotonic fertility decline. Second, the trends of CAF closely resemble those of lagged completed cohort fertility. This suggests that CAF can be interpreted as lagged completed cohort fertility. Because the CAF is available in most recent period whereas lagged completed cohort fertility is not, the correspondence should be useful to examine fertility trend. In sum, CAF is useful for the following reasons. First, it accounts for tempo effects when fertility timing as well as level changes. Second, the correspondence of CAF and lagged completed cohort fertility suggests that CAF can work for demographic translation in fertility research.

본 연구는 횡단-평균 출산율(Cross-sectional Average Fertility, CAF)의 속성을 살펴본다. 최근에 제시된 횡단-평균 출산율(Kye, 2012)은 가임기 여성의 현재 및 과거 출산 경험에 대한 요약치이며, 이들의 평균 가족크기와 관련이 있다. 본 연구는 인간 출산율 데이터 베이스(Human Fertility Database, HFD)와 가상실험 자료를 활용하여 횡단-평균 출산율의 속성을 검토하고 이를 다른 출산율 측청치와 비교하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 횡단 평균 출산율이 횡단 평균 기대수명(Cross-sectional Average Length of Life, CAL)과 정태적 평균초혼연령(singulate mean age at marriage, SMAM)과 같은 횡단-평균 측정치이기 때문에, 이들 측정치들과의 공통점에 대해서도 논의한다. 분석 결과는 다음과 같이 요약할 수 있다. 첫째, 횡단-평균 출산율은 다른 측정치들보다 기간 템포 변화의 영향을 가장 작게 받는다. 따라서, 다른 측정치들보다 매끄러운 추세를 보여준다. 특히, 이러한 경향은 출산율이 단선적으로(monotonically) 하락하는 기간 동안 두드러지게 나타난다. 둘째, 횡단-평균 출산율의 변화추세는 지연된 완성 코호트 출산율(lagged completed cohort fertility)과 유사하며, 이는 횡단-평균 출산율이 기존에 사용되어 왔던 지연된 완성 코호트 출산율과 비슷한 방식으로 해석될 수 있음을 함의한다. 지연된 완성 코호트 출산율과 비교할 때, 횡단-평균 출산율은 가장 최근 기간에도 계산 가능하기 때문에, 이러한 유사성은 출산율 추세를 연구하는 데 유용하게 사용될 수 있다. 요약하면, 횡단-평균 출산율은 다음과 같은 측면을 고려할 때 출산율 연구에 유용하게 사용될 수 있다. 첫째, 횡단-평균 출산율은 출산시기 및 출산 수준이 변화하는 상황에서 템포 효과를 효과적으로 통제할 수 있다. 둘째, 횡단-평균 출산율과 지연된 완성 코호트 출산율의 유사성은 횡단 평균 출산율이 출산연구에서 인구학적 변형(demographic translation)을 이해하는 데 유용하게 사용될 수 있음을 보여준다.

TOC
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Cross-sectional Average Fertility (CAF): Basic Properties
Ⅲ. Comparison with Other Measures and Interpretations
Ⅳ. Data
Ⅴ. Simulation: Influences of Tempo and Quantum Changes on Summary Fertility Measures
Ⅵ. Results
Ⅶ. Summary and Discussion
〈References〉
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References (17)

Please found references of this article.

  1. Bongaarts, J. , 1998 , On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility , Population and Development Review 24 (2) : 271 ~ 291

  2. Foster, A. , 1990 , Cohort Analysis and Demographic Translation: A Comparative Study of Recent Trends in Age Specific Fertility Rates from Europe and North America , Population Studies 44 (2) : 287 ~ 315

  3. Guillot, M. , 2003 , The Cross-Sectional Average Length of Life (CAF): A Cross-Sectional Mortality Measure that Reflects the Experience of Cohorts , Population Studies 57 (1) : 41 ~ 54

  4. Guillot, M. , 2011 , On the Correspondence between CAL and Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy , Demographic Research 24 : 611 ~ 632

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  10. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and Vienna Institute of Demography , , Human Fertility Database

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