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[학술저널]

  • 학술저널

나하나(인제대학교) 정우식(인제대학교)

DOI : 10.5572/KOSAE.2019.35.3.303

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초록

The 3-second gust estimated by a typhoon disaster prevention model is a proxy for the maximum wind speed that can occur during a typhoon attack. This information can be very useful for disaster prevention purposes. In order to improve the accuracy of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) numerical model, whose results are the input data for typhoon disaster prevention models, this study investigates the sensitivity of the WRF model to high-resolution sea surface temperature data and meteorological data assimilation. In order to do so, analyses of temperature and wind speed have been carried out. Among them, the modeling experiment utilizing high-resolution sea surface temperature data as well as meteorological data assimilation (EXP3) yielded results that best agreed with the observed values. The experiment carried out using only meteorological data assimilation (EXP2) delivered better results than the simulation in which only high-resolution sea surface temperature data were used (EXP1). On the other hand, EXP1 performed slightly better than EXP2 for wind speed estimation. A statistical analysis was performed in order to evaluate the accuracy of the model results. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of temperature estimates was 0.928 for EXP3, and 1.642 for CTL, while the RMSE of wind speed estimates was 2.509 for EXP3, and 3.389 for CTL. These results demonstrate that the highest prediction accuracy is achieved when the model utilizes both the highresolution sea surface temperature data and the meteorological data assimilation. With this more accurate model, the prediction accuracy of the 3-second gust, which is the maximum wind speed of a typhoon, also can be improved. Finally, this model can be used for disaster prevention, because it can help to reduce the damage caused by typhoons in the Korean peninsula.

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