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지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
The purpose of this study is to analyzes the crime trend in Korea by examining the annual rates of crime from 1964 to 2000, and to forecast the trend from 2001 to 2010. The analysis and forecasts are based on current official crime rates. We tries (1) to review the annual rate of crime in our nation, (2) to examine the aspects of major socioeconomic change and their impact on crime rates, and (3) to forecast the crime rates in the future. The data that we have analysed here were obtained from official crime statistics, 'Analytical Report on Crime', which is published quarterly by the Supreme Public Prosecutor's Office in Korea. To analyze the time series data on the years 1964 to 2000, we sued the first-order regression with autocorrelated error or autoregressive error model. This model included crime rate as an exogenous variable, and police force, GDP, unemployment rate, teenage rate, and automobile rate as endogenous variables. Crime rate refers to estimates of total crime, property crime, violent crime, and traffic crime per 100,000 person.
Major findings of our analyses are as follows. First, First, the annual rate of total crime has decreased from 1964 to 1973, and it has increased continuously from 1974 to 2000. Especially, since 1982, total crime rate has rapidly increased. But the property crime rate has decreased since 1982. The trend of violent crime rates has been the same to that of total crime rates. And in property crimes such as larceny, theft, have decreased, but fraud have increased. And violent crimes such as violence, burglar, rape, have increased since 1960s. The total crime rate per 100,000 people decreased from 1,549 cases in 1964 to 948 cases in 1973. The rate began to rise gradually after 1974 and peaked with 3,803 cases in 1998. Second, the effect of socioeconomic factors on crime rate is not significant after controlling for autocorrelated error effects. and third, total crime rate and traffic crime rate are forecast to increase, property crime rate to decrease, and violent crime rate to slowly increase.
In this study, we has reviewed the crime trend in our society since 1964. And we wish this study to contribute to the understand and explanation of crime phenomenon in our society. From our study, it is implied that future research should attempt to develop a more refined model on the relationship between socioeconomic factors and crime rates, and to elaborate the measures on the major concepts and analysis methods.
Major findings of our analyses are as follows. First, First, the annual rate of total crime has decreased from 1964 to 1973, and it has increased continuously from 1974 to 2000. Especially, since 1982, total crime rate has rapidly increased. But the property crime rate has decreased since 1982. The trend of violent crime rates has been the same to that of total crime rates. And in property crimes such as larceny, theft, have decreased, but fraud have increased. And violent crimes such as violence, burglar, rape, have increased since 1960s. The total crime rate per 100,000 people decreased from 1,549 cases in 1964 to 948 cases in 1973. The rate began to rise gradually after 1974 and peaked with 3,803 cases in 1998. Second, the effect of socioeconomic factors on crime rate is not significant after controlling for autocorrelated error effects. and third, total crime rate and traffic crime rate are forecast to increase, property crime rate to decrease, and violent crime rate to slowly increase.
In this study, we has reviewed the crime trend in our society since 1964. And we wish this study to contribute to the understand and explanation of crime phenomenon in our society. From our study, it is implied that future research should attempt to develop a more refined model on the relationship between socioeconomic factors and crime rates, and to elaborate the measures on the major concepts and analysis methods.
목차
Ⅰ. 머리글
Ⅱ. 범죄추세분석에 대한 이론적 고찰
Ⅲ. 분석모형 및 방법
Ⅳ. 분석결과
Ⅴ. 맺음글
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Abstracts
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2012-364-003960441