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[학술저널]

  • 학술저널

김상욱(서울대학교) 송강현(서울대학교) 김서연(서울대학교) 손석우(서울대학교) C. Franzke(Meteorologisches Institut Universität Hamburg)

초록

This study explores the long-term trends of surface air temperatures in 11 KMA stations over the period of 1960~2012. Both linear and nonlinear trends are examined for the 95th, 50th, and 5th percentiles of daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperatures (Tmin) by using quantile regression method. It is found that in most stations linear trends of Tmax and Tmin are generally stronger in winter than in summer, and warming trend of the 5th percentile temperature (cold extreme) is stronger than that of the 95th percentile temperature (warm extreme) in both seasons. The nonlinear trends, which are evaluated by the second order polynomial fitting, show a strong nonlinearity in winter. Specifically, winter temperatures have increased until 2000s but slightly decreased afterward in all percentiles. This contrasts with the 95th and 50th percentiles of summer Tmin that show a decreasing trend until 1980s then an increasing trend. While this result is consistent with a seasonal dependence of the recent global warming hiatus, most of the nonlinear trends are statistically insignificant, making a quantitative attribution of nonlinear temperature trends challenging.

목차

Abstract
1. 서론
2. 자료 및 방법
3. 1차(선형) 추세 분석
4. 2차 추세 분석
5. 유의성 검정
6. 결론
REFERENCES

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