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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2020.1
- 수록면
- 493 - 509 (17page)
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In the light of recently revealed evidence that suggests a weaker impact of exchange rates on trade, this paper empirically studies the link between real exchange rate and exports in the context of a developing country, Armenia, using quarterly data from January 2001 to June 2019. In the course of this analysis, by performing a rolling regression, we confirm the evidence of a subdued impact of exchange rates on exports. We also investigate the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports for Armenia, where exchange rate risk is not generally hedged by exporting firms. Though dozens of studies have examined the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade, the influence of exchange rate volatility is still ambiguous from empirical point of view. Our estimations indicate that short-term exchange rate volatility has no impact on exports. Finally, we study the dynamics of the prolonged overvaluation of exchange rates observed in the economy of Armenia since the early 2000s, which caused a continual deterioration in its external competitiveness. Using the instrumental variable–generalized method of moments (IV-GMM) framework, we estimate a two-stage model for the real effective exchange rate (REER) with endogenous remittances and find evidence of the Dutch disease in Armenia.
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참고문헌 (56)
참고문헌 신청
Swarnali Ahmed / 2017 / Global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports / The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 17(1):1~24
Mary Amiti / 2014 / Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect / American Economic Review 104(7):1942~1978
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes / 2004 / Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts / World Development 32(8):1407~1417
Kyriacos Aristotelous / 2001 / Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate regime, and trade volume: evidence from the UK–US export function (1889–1999) / Economics Letters 72(1):87~94
Augustine C. Arize / 1995 / The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on U. S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation / Southern Economic Journal 62(1):34~43
Mary Amiti / 2014 / Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect / American Economic Review 104(7):1942~1978
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes / 2004 / Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts / World Development 32(8):1407~1417
Kyriacos Aristotelous / 2001 / Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate regime, and trade volume: evidence from the UK–US export function (1889–1999) / Economics Letters 72(1):87~94
Augustine C. Arize / 1995 / The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on U. S. Exports: An Empirical Investigation / Southern Economic Journal 62(1):34~43
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