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    초록·키워드

    Most of existing growth models provide plausible forecasts of technological substitution. However, these models provide neither any justification of the functional form employed nor any information on the determinants of technological change. In this paper, we propose a conceptual methodology based on the major factors of market demand for forecasting innovation diffusion of new technological products. Some applications are presented to illustrate the wide applicability and the usefulness of our approach. Also this paper presents the results of an experimental case study on the forecast for ATM based B-ISDN penetration in Korea.

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      UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2009-569-013213504