인문학
사회과학
자연과학
공학
의약학
농수해양학
예술체육학
복합학
DBpia AI
AI 에이전트
AI 아이디어
AI 리더
AI 뷰어
Citeasy
크롬 서지관리 다운로드
지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
피인용 0
초록·키워드
The Korean government is faced with the dual challenges of ensuring a stable electricity supply and achieving substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions in the power sector. In response, the 11th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand, announced in February 2025, proposes to increase the share of carbon-free power sources to 71% by 2038. This study employs the Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM SNU) to simulate the projected emissions pathway under the current policy scenario and test whether the plan can meet Korea’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target for the power sector -a 45.9% reduction in GHG emissions from 2018 levels-and support deeper emissions cuts through2035. Furthermore, an alternative scenario (CoalOut HighRE), which phases out coal-fired power by 2035 and accelerates the deployment of renewable energy centered on offshore wind, is developed and analyzed. The results show that the current plan is unlikely to achieve the 2030 NDC target, whereas the alternative scenario can not only ensure reliable power supply but also achieve the 2030 NDC and reduce power sector GHG emissions by 83% by 2035. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of deep emissions reductions while maintaining a stable electricity supply under an ambitious coal phase-out and renewable energy expansion strategy. This highlights the importance of integrated planning for electricity transition and climate goals in guiding effective NDC implementation.
본문·목차
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