인문학
사회과학
자연과학
공학
의약학
농수해양학
예술체육학
복합학
지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록·키워드
Reliable planning for hydraulic and urban drainage under climate change requires station-scaled IDF(Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves that represent future sub-daily extremes. We develop IDF projections for 60 stations across Korea using long-term observations and an ensemble of regional climate model outputs under SSP2-4.5. Sub-daily annual maxima(1 24 h) are generated from daily maxima via a conditional copula-based temporal downscaling scheme that treats the 24-h annual maximum as the conditioning variable. Multi-day(48, 72h) extremes are taken from bias-corrected series using quantile delta mapping, and frequency analysis applies the Gumbel distribution with probability-weighted moments. Changes are summarized by return period and three future time slices(2015 - 2040, 2041 - 2070, 2071 - 2100). The results indicate widespread amplification of design rainfall, with larger percentage increases for longer durations and rarer events, and with clear spatial heterogeneity stronger signals along the eastern and southern coasts and more moderate responses over inland basins. The downscaling framework preserves the climate-change signal of the driving models while providing station-level, sub-daily estimates suitable for engineering application. These projections offer a consistent basis for updating rainfall design standards and reassessing flood risk in a warming climate. More broadly, the copula-based approach provides a practical pathway to translate daily climate scenarios into sub-daily extremes for adaptation planning, while highlighting the need to consider duration and return-period dependence, as well as regional variability, when revising design criteria.
본문·목차
인공지능 문자 인식 모델을 통해 추출된 텍스트로, 일부 오타나 오류가 포함될 수 있으나 지속적으로 개선 중입니다.
오류를 발견하셨다면 해당 부분을 드래그한 후 ' 를 통해 신고해주세요.
오류를 발견하셨다면 해당 부분을 드래그한 후 ' 를 통해 신고해주세요.
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-151-26-02-094500075