인문학
사회과학
자연과학
공학
의약학
농수해양학
예술체육학
복합학
DBpia AI
AI 에이전트
AI 아이디어
AI 리더
AI 뷰어
Citeasy
크롬 서지관리 다운로드
지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록·키워드
Purpose: This study re-examines the conventional 11-shot zero-failure criterion used in the Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program (ASRP) for guided missiles. The objective is to determine whether the sample size in the 2nd-4th ASRP tests can be reduced while still guaranteeing a reliability level of 0.8 with a confidence level of 0.9.
Methods: First, the 11-shot requirement is derived from a binomial reliability demonstration test framework. Subsequently, three complementary approaches are proposed: (1) a sequential testing plan, (2) a Bayesian updating scheme, and (3) a calibration-factor method.
Results: Numerical analysis indicates that, given 11 zero-failure shots in the 1st phase, a 2nd-phase plan with up to seven shots can achieve a posterior probability P(p≥0.8) of approximately 0.91. Extending the Bayesian updating approach to the 3rd-4th phases shows that three-shot tests per phase can maintain the target confidence level when combined with prior information. The calibration factor (approximately 1.1 for seven shots) restores the reliability lower bound to a level comparable to that of the original 11-shot criterion.
Conclusion: The proposed framework demonstrates that guided-missile ASRP testing can reduce live-round consumption in later phases without sacrificing statistical rigor. Furthermore, it provides a practical basis for redesigning reliability test plans that better balance resource constraints with required assurance levels.
Methods: First, the 11-shot requirement is derived from a binomial reliability demonstration test framework. Subsequently, three complementary approaches are proposed: (1) a sequential testing plan, (2) a Bayesian updating scheme, and (3) a calibration-factor method.
Results: Numerical analysis indicates that, given 11 zero-failure shots in the 1st phase, a 2nd-phase plan with up to seven shots can achieve a posterior probability P(p≥0.8) of approximately 0.91. Extending the Bayesian updating approach to the 3rd-4th phases shows that three-shot tests per phase can maintain the target confidence level when combined with prior information. The calibration factor (approximately 1.1 for seven shots) restores the reliability lower bound to a level comparable to that of the original 11-shot criterion.
Conclusion: The proposed framework demonstrates that guided-missile ASRP testing can reduce live-round consumption in later phases without sacrificing statistical rigor. Furthermore, it provides a practical basis for redesigning reliability test plans that better balance resource constraints with required assurance levels.
본문·목차
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