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The ongoing competition between the United States and China has upgraded to technological decoupling (TD). This paper analyzes the evolution of the U.S. TD policy toward China since the Bush administration and the reasons for the policy changes. With neoclassical realism, this paper defines the distribution of technological power as the independent variable and the U.S. threat perception of China as the intervening variable. It finds that although China’s technological strength has gradually increased, imposing systemic pressure on the United States, the U.S. TD policy depends on the extent of the U.S. threat perception of China. As the United States defines China from a collaborator to a competitor and a challenger, its TD policy has gradually evolved to work with its allies and partners to contain China multilaterally, aiming to reshape the world’s technology supply chain. Based on these findings, the United States is expected to adopt a more stringent TD policy against China, but the policy’s effectiveness remains uncertain.
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