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Abstract·Keywords
The United States’ Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is a biofuel use mandate that is widely studied for its potential impacts on food prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts. Another policy that affects biomass-based diesel fuel uses is a Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC) that supports use, but has frequently expired and then been reintroduced with retroactive payments so RFS-BTC interactions are unclear. We investigate the pass-through of the biodiesel-diesel price spread and BTC to the prices of RFS compliance certificates (Renewable Identification Numbers, RINs). The RIN price theoretically depends on the price of fuels, such as biodiesel and diesel, as well as the BTC – if the BTC is in place or expected. Our estimated results shows that market participants’ responses to the uncertainty of BTC differ over time and are sensitive to the BTC status. These results raise questions about whether an inconsistently applied BTC in the context of a blend mandate encourages firms’ use of biofuel and, if that is the underlying goal, could question the program’s effectiveness. Results are relevant to policy makers who create the expire- and-revive BTC, regulators who set RFS targets, market participants, and societal goals regarding GHG emissions and goods’ prices.
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-151-25-02-092521071
