Dynamic Analysis of Korea’s Crude Oil Import Demand: The Impact of Economic Growth, Oil Prices, and Major Economic Disruptions (1980-2023)

Q: What is crude oil import demand as defined in this paper?

Crude oil import demand is defined by analyzing the effects of South Korea's economic growth, international oil price volatility, and major economic disruptions—such as the Asian Financial Crisis, the Global Financial Crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic—on crude oil import volumes. This reflects the dependence on crude oil as an essential energy source for South Korea's industrialization and economic development, and the short- and long-term relationships are measured using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model.

Q: To which factors is South Korea's crude oil import demand most sensitively responsive in the long term?

The research findings indicate that South Korea's crude oil import demand is most sensitively responsive to real GDP in the long term, with income elasticity appearing significantly higher than oil price elasticity. This demonstrates a structural characteristic where economic growth substantially increases crude oil imports, while the demand remains relatively less sensitive to changes in oil prices.

Honyun Kim; Seunghoon Paik

doi:10.69473/iasr.2025.28.3.263

Academic journal

Author: Honyun Kim (Kumho Petrochemical) Seunghoon Paik (Myongji University)

Journal: Center for International Area Studies International Area Studies Review Vol.28 No.3

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Abstract·Keywords

This paper presents an analysis of South Korea’s crude oil import demand from 1980 to 2023. The analysis considers the impacts of economic growth, oil prices, and economic disruptions, including the Asian financial crisis (1997-1998), the global financial crisis (2008-2009), and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020- 2021). The study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine the short- and long-run relationships between crude oil imports, GDP, and oil prices. The results demonstrate that, in the long run, real GDP has a positive effect on crude oil import demand, while oil prices have a significant negative effect. This confirms that South Korea’s crude oil demand is more elastic in income than in price. The Asian financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic show significant impacts on the long-term crude oil demand, while the 2008 global financial crisis does not have a significant effect. In the short run, the effects of oil prices, GDP and economic disruptions are not statistically significant. However, there is a rapid adjustment towards long-term equilibrium, indicating that long-term factors exert a predominant influence. The findings emphasise the significance of long-term economic fundamentals in influencing crude oil import patterns and propose policy measures to enhance energy security.

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