Factions, Policy, and Electoral Interests in the Selection of LDP Leaders: Evidence from the 2021 and 2024 Presidential Elections

Q: What is faction as defined in this paper?

Factions are defined as groups within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan that influence the process of electing the party leader. While they traditionally exhibited a uniform pattern where faction leaders directed the votes of member lawmakers toward a specific candidate, analysis of the 2021 and 2024 LDP presidential elections reveals that factional influence has manifested in more complex and diverse forms, such as supporting multiple candidates or withdrawing support for a particular candidate.

Q: How has the influence of factions changed in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential elections?

The research findings indicate that while factional influence remains significant in the 2021 and 2024 LDP presidential elections, its complexity has increased and its overall importance has slightly declined. In the 2024 election specifically, the influence of individual characteristics of faction members—particularly election-related factors—appeared significantly stronger than policy preferences. This suggests that factional influence has shifted away from supporting a single candidate toward a bidirectional and multifaceted pattern, involving support or lack of support for multiple candidates.

Masahiko Asano; Dennis Patterson

doi:10.69473/iasr.2025.28.3.301

Academic journal

Author: Masahiko Asano (Takushoku University) Dennis Patterson (Texas Tech University)

Journal: Center for International Area Studies International Area Studies Review Vol.28 No.3

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Abstract·Keywords

The president of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has long been said to be chosen according to a “factional logic,” but after the electoral reform of 1994, much research has been devoted to the question of just how influential factional affiliations continue to be in this process. Some studies have suggested that factional influences have diminished, while others have argued that factions remain significant, leaving no definitive conclusion. This paper contributes to this dabate by using unique data from two LDP presidential elections, one held in 2021 and the other in 2024. Our analysis of these data considers the influence of LDP voting members’ policy preferences and electoral concerns, in addition to factional affiliations, and our results indicate that, while still influential in determining who becomes the LDP’s leader, the importance of factional affiliations has varied across LDP Presidential elections, manifesting more complicated patterns of influence than suggested in the scholarly literature, but also declining in importance in the 2024 LDP presidential election.

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