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초록·키워드 목차

Bayesian approach for the structural reliability analysis is proposed, which can deal with the epistemic uncertainty arising due to the limited number of data. Until recently, the conventional reliability analysis mostly dealt with the aleatory uncertainty in which the statistical properties are completely known. In practice, however, this is not the case due to the insufficient data for estimating the statistical information, which makes the existing methods less useful. In the Bayesian approach, the probability itself is a random variable conditioned by the observed data, and is represented by a PDF, which is obtained by conducting a double loop of reliability analyses. KDRM is employed for the efficient implementation of the reliability analysis, which can construct the PDF of the limit state function with favorable accuracy under a small number of analyses Mathematical examples are used to verify the proposed method. A reliability problem of a side load spring is solved as an example for practical application. #Bayesian approach #Epistemic uncertainty #Kriging dimension reduction method #Pigtail spring #Reliability analysis #Side load

Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Bayesian reliability analysis
3. Mathematical example
4. Reliability analysis of pigtail spring
5. Bayesian reliability analysis of pigtail spring
6. Summary and Conclusions
References

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