지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Does snow depth initialization have a quantitative impact on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction skill? To answer this question, a snow depth initialization technique for seasonal forecast system has been implemented and the impact of the initialization on the seasonal forecast of surface air tempreature during the wintertime is examined. Since the snow depth observation can not be directly used in the model simulation due to the large systematic bias and much smaller model variability, an anomaly resacling method to the snow depth initialization is applied. Snow depth in the model is initialized by adding a rescaled snow depth observation anomaly to the model snow depth climatology. A suite of seasonal forecast is performed for each year in recent 12 years (1999-2010) with and without the snow depth initialization to evaluate the performance of the developed technique. The results show that the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature over East Asian region sensitively depends on the initial snow depth anomaly over the region. However, the sensitivity shows large differences for different timing of the initialization and forecast lead time. Especially, the snow depth anomaly initialized in the late winter (Mar. 1) is the most effective in modulating the surface air temperature anomaly after one month. The real predictability gained by the snow depth initialization is also examined from the comparison with observation. The gain of the real predictability os generally small except for the forecasting experiment in the early winter (Nov. 1), which shows some skillful forecasts. Implications of these results and future directions for further development are discussed.
목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 자료 및 방법
3. 관측 눈깊이 자료의 특성
4. 기후모델의 눈깊이 편향과 변동성
5. 눈깊이 초기화를 이용한 동아시아 겨울철 지표면 기온의 계절예측
6. 결론 및 토의
참고문헌
참고문헌 (35)
참고문헌 신청
1. [기타자료] - 기상청 / 2010 / 을철시베리아지역강설과동아시아장주기한파발생관련성에대한역학적규명 : 4 ~
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Allen, R. J. / 2010 / Effects of continentalscale snow albedo anomalies on the wintertime Arctic oscillation / J. Geophys. Res. 115 : 23105 ~
3. [단행본] - Amstrong, L. R / 2008 / Snow and climate / Cambridge : 145 ~ 148
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Baker, D. G / 1992 / Airtemperature and radiation depressionsassociated with snow cover / J. Appl. Meteorol 31 : 247 ~ 254
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Brasnett, B. / 1999 / A global analysis of snow depth for numerical weather prediction / J. Appl. Meteorol 38 : 726 ~ 740
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Allen, R. J. / 2010 / Effects of continentalscale snow albedo anomalies on the wintertime Arctic oscillation / J. Geophys. Res. 115 : 23105 ~
3. [단행본] - Amstrong, L. R / 2008 / Snow and climate / Cambridge : 145 ~ 148
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Baker, D. G / 1992 / Airtemperature and radiation depressionsassociated with snow cover / J. Appl. Meteorol 31 : 247 ~ 254
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Brasnett, B. / 1999 / A global analysis of snow depth for numerical weather prediction / J. Appl. Meteorol 38 : 726 ~ 740
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