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논문 기본 정보

저자정보
(단국대학교) (단국대학교)
저널정보
대한국토·도시계획학회 국토계획 國土計劃 第48卷 第1號
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피인용 25

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    초록·키워드

    Accurately capturing volatility spillover effects among local apartment housing markets is vital for both real estate investments and policy-making. Therefore, we estimate GARCH and EGARCH models to analyze time-varying volatility and volatility spillover effects within Korean apartment housing market, based on the monthly data sets that cover 9 local markets(Seoul, Seoul Metropolitan Area, and 6 Large cities) in KB apartment housing price indices from January 2000 to December 2011. After then, most suitable mean and variance equations to estimate the conditional heteroscedasticity volatilities of the returns of house prices are selected.
    The main empirical findings are as follows. Firstly, Korean apartment housing market shows the evidence of ARCH and GARCH effects in 9 local markets. The estimation results from EGARCH model reveal that, unlike apartment rental markets, asymmetric effects are applied to most apartment sales markets. Secondly, when we estimate volatility spillover effects based on EGARCH model, volatility spillover effects existed among 9 local markets within Korean apartment housing market.

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      UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2014-539-000198837