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This study explores the long-term trends of surface air temperatures in 11 KMA stations over the period of 1960~2012. Both linear and nonlinear trends are examined for the 95<SUP>th</SUP>, 50<SUP>th</SUP>, and 5<SUP>th</SUP> percentiles of daily maximum (T<SUB>max</SUB>) and minimum temperatures (T<SUB>min</SUB>) by using quantile regression method. It is found that in most stations linear trends of T<SUB>max</SUB> and T<SUB>min</SUB> are generally stronger in winter than in summer, and warming trend of the 5<SUP>th</SUP> percentile temperature (cold extreme) is stronger than that of the 95<SUP>th</SUP> percentile temperature (warm extreme) in both seasons. The nonlinear trends, which are evaluated by the second order polynomial fitting, show a strong nonlinearity in winter. Specifically, winter temperatures have increased until 2000s but slightly decreased afterward in all percentiles. This contrasts with the 95<SUP>th</SUP> and 50t<SUP>h</SUP> percentiles of summer T<SUB>min</SUB> that show a decreasing trend until 1980s then an increasing trend. While this result is consistent with a seasonal dependence of the recent global warming hiatus, most of the nonlinear trends are statistically insignificant, making a quantitative attribution of nonlinear temperature trends challenging.
목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 자료 및 방법
3. 1차(선형) 추세 분석
4. 2차 추세 분석
5. 유의성 검정
6. 결론
REFERENCES
참고문헌 (15)
참고문헌 신청
1. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Bailing, R. C. / 1998 / Analysis of winter and summer warming rates in gridded temperature time series / Climate Res. 9 : 175 ~ 181
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Franzke, C. / 2012 / Nonlinear trends, long-range dependence, and climate noise properties of surface temperature / J. Climate 25 : 4172 ~ 4183
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Franzke, C. / 2013 / A novel method to test for significant trends in extreme values in serially dependent time series / Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 : 1392 ~ 1395
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 허인혜 / 2011 / 우리나라의 일교차 변화에 관한 연구 / 한국지역지리학회지 17 (2) : 167 ~ 180
5. [단행본] - Kirtman, B. / 2013 / Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / Cambridge University Press
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Franzke, C. / 2012 / Nonlinear trends, long-range dependence, and climate noise properties of surface temperature / J. Climate 25 : 4172 ~ 4183
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Franzke, C. / 2013 / A novel method to test for significant trends in extreme values in serially dependent time series / Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 : 1392 ~ 1395
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 허인혜 / 2011 / 우리나라의 일교차 변화에 관한 연구 / 한국지역지리학회지 17 (2) : 167 ~ 180
5. [단행본] - Kirtman, B. / 2013 / Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / Cambridge University Press
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