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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
Young-Kug So (Volvo Construction Equipment) Byeong-Jin Ryu (Volvo Construction Equipment)
저널정보
한국신뢰성학회 신뢰성응용연구 신뢰성응용연구 제15권 제2호
발행연도
2015.6
수록면
90 - 100 (11page)

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초록· 키워드

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Reliability growth rate (or reliability growth curve slope) have the two cases of trend as a constant or changing one during the reliability growth testing. The changing case is very common situation. The reasons of reliability growth rate changing are that the failures to follow the NHPP (None-Homogeneous Poisson Process), and the solutions implemented during test to break out other problems or not to take out all of the root cause permanently. If the changing were big, the “Goodness of Fit (GOF)” of reliability growth curve to test data would be very low and then reduce the accuracy of assessing result with test data. In this research, we are using Duane model and AMSAA model for assessing test data and projecting the reliability level of complex and repairable system as like construction equipment and vehicle. In case of no changing in reliability growth rate, it is reasonable for reliability engineer to implement the original Duane model (1964) and Crow-AMSAA model (1975) for the assessment and projection activity. However, in case of reliability growth rate changing, it is necessary to find the method to increase the “GOF” of reliability growth curves to test data. To increase GOF of reliability growth curves, it is necessary to find the proper parameter calculation method of interesting reliability growth models that are applicable to the situation of reliability growth rate changing. Since the Duane and AMSAA models have a characteristic to get more strong influence from the initial test (or failure) data than the latest one, the both models have a limitation to contain the latest test data information that is more important and better to assess test data in view of accuracy, especially when the reliability growth rate changing. The main objective of this research is to find the parameter calculation method to reflect the latest test data in the case of reliability growth rate changing. According to my experience in vehicle and construction equipment developments over 18 years, over the 90% in the total development cases are with such changing during the developing test. The objective of this research was to develop the newly assessing method and the process for GOF level increasing in case of reliability growth rate changing that would contribute to achieve more accurate assessing and projecting result. We also developed the new evaluation method for GOF that are applicable to the both models as Duane and AMSAA, so it is possible to compare it between models and check the effectiveness of new parameter calculation methods in any interesting situation. These research results can reduce the decision error for development process and business control with the accurately assessing and projecting result.
#Reliability Growth Test #Reliability Growth Rate #Regression #Least Square Method #Duane Model #AMSAA Model #Maximum Likelihood Estimation

목차

1. Introduction
2. Background
3. New Gof (Goodness Of Fitness) Evaluation Method
4. New Test Data Assessing Process and Method For Reliability Growth Rate Changing Method
5. Application Case and Result With New Assessing Process and Metho
6. Conclusion
References

참고문헌 (23)

참고문헌 신청
[단행본] - Barringer, P. / 2002 / Crow/AMSAA Reliability Growth Plots / Barringer and Associates, Inc google schola [학술지(정기간행물)] - 최성훈 / 2006 / 한국형고속열차 차량시스템의 신뢰성 성장 평가 / 한국철도학회논문집 9 (5) : 606 ~ 611 dbpia [학술대회논문] - Codier, E. O. / 1968 / Reliability Growth in Real Life / Proceedings, 1968 Annual Symposium on Reliability : 458 ~ 469 google schola [보고서] - Crow, L. H. / 1974 / Reliability analysis for complex, repairable systems, Reliability and Biometry, Statistical Analysis of Life length : 379 ~ 410 google schola [학술대회논문] - Demko, E. / 1993 / On Non-linear Reliability Growth / IEEE Proceedings Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium : 411 ~ 416 google schola

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