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Along with climate change, the occurrence and severity of natural disasters have been increased globally. In particular, the increase of localized heavyrainfalls have caused severe flood damage. Thus, it is needed to consider climate change into the estimation of design flood, a principal design factor. Themain objective of this study was to estimate design floods for an agricultural reservoir watershed based on the RCP (Representative ConcentrationPathways) scenarios. Gyeryong Reservoir located in the Geum River watershed was selected as the study area. Precipitation data of the past 30 years (1981∼2010; 1995s) were collected from the Daejeon meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 scenarios were alsoobtained and corrected their bias using the quantile mapping method. Probability rainfalls of 200-year frequency and PMPs were calculated for threedifferent future spans, i.e. 2011∼2040; 2025s, 2041∼2070; 2055s, 2071∼2100; 2085s. Design floods for different probability rainfalls were calculatedusing HEC-HMS. As the result, future probability rainfalls increased by 9.5 %, 7.8 % and 22.0 %, also design floods increased by 20.7 %, 5.0 % and 26.9%, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s and tend to increase over those of 1995s. RCP4.5 scenario, especially, resulted in the greatest increase indesign floods, 37.3 %, 36.5 % and 47.1 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to reducedamage caused by climate change and to establish adaptation policies in the future.
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참고문헌 (22)
참고문헌 신청
Climate Change Information Center / 2013 / Abnormal climate report
Hong, S. J. / 2012 / The impact assessment of climate change on streamflow in Han River basin based on RCP climate change scenario / Journal of the Korean Society of Civil En
Hosking, J. R. M. / 1990 / L-Moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statics / Journal of Royal Statistical Society 52 (1) : 105
Hwang, S. W. / / Uncertainty of methodology and process of climate change impact assessment / Rural Resources 55 (1) : 30 ~ 39
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / 2013 / Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmenta
Hong, S. J. / 2012 / The impact assessment of climate change on streamflow in Han River basin based on RCP climate change scenario / Journal of the Korean Society of Civil En
Hosking, J. R. M. / 1990 / L-Moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statics / Journal of Royal Statistical Society 52 (1) : 105
Hwang, S. W. / / Uncertainty of methodology and process of climate change impact assessment / Rural Resources 55 (1) : 30 ~ 39
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / 2013 / Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmenta
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