An Evaluation Method for Tornado Missile Strike Probability with Stochastic Correlation

Yuzuru Eguchi; Takahiro Murakami; Hiromaru Hirakuchi; Soichiro Sugimoto; Yasuo Hattori

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자료유형: 학술저널

저자정보: Yuzuru Eguchi Takahiro Murakami Hiromaru Hirakuchi Soichiro Sugimoto Yasuo Hattori

저널정보: 한국원자력학회 Nuclear Engineering and Technology Nuclear Engineering and Technology 제49권 제2호

발행연도: 2017.1

수록면: 395 - 403 (9page)

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An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without usingthe Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probabilityevaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-bornemissile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrainedobjects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missileanalysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flightdistance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditionalstrike probability, QV(r), of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. Incontrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computedusing a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function,p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structurewith the convolutional integration of product of QV(r) and p(V) over V. The evaluationmethod is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitativelyverify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in thevicinity of or far away from the structure.

#Correlation #Missile #Strike Probability #Tornado #Wind Speed

참고문헌 (18)

참고문헌 신청

E. Simiu / 1976 / Tornado-Borne Missile Speeds

E. Simiu / 1996 / Wind Effects on Structures:Fundamentals and Applications to Design / John Wiley & Sons

EPRI / 1978 / Wind Field and Trajectory Models for Tornado Propelled Objects

EPRI / 1981 / Tornado Missile Simulation and Design Methodology, Volume 1: Simulation Methodology, Design Applications, and TORMIS Computer Code / NP-2005-V1

EPRI / 1981 / Tornado Missile Simulation and Design Methodology, Volume 2: Model Verification and Database Updates / NP-2005-V2

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