지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
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Against the backdrop of the clear impact of climate change, it has become essential to analyze the influence of climate change and relevant vulnerabilities. This research involved evaluating the impact of heat waves in Seoul, from among many local autonomous bodies that are responsible for implementing measures on adapting to climate change. To carry out the evaluation, the A1B scenario was used to forecast future temperature levels. Future climate scenario results were downscaled to 1km×1km to result in the incorporation of regional characteristics. In assessing the influence of heat waves on people-especially the excess mortality-we analyzed critical temperature levels that affect excess mortality and came up with the excess mortality. Results of this evaluation on the impact of climate change and vulnerabilities indicate that the number of days on which the daily average temperature reaches 28.1˚C-the critical temperature for excess mortality-in Seoul will sharply increase in the 2050s and 2090s. The highest level of impact will be in the month of August. The most affected areas in the summer will be Songpa-gu, Gangnam-gu, and Yeongdeungpo-gu. These areas have a high concentration of residences which means that heat island effects are one of the reasons for the high level of impact. The excess mortality from heat waves is expected to be at least five times the current figure in 2090. Adaptation plan needs to be made on drawing up long-term adaptation measures as well as implementing short-term measures to minimize or adapt the impact of climate change.
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참고문헌 (9)
참고문헌 신청
IPCC / 2007 / Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Koo, G. S / 2009 / Projection of temperature overKorea using an MM5 regional climatesimulation / Climate research 40 : 241 ~ 248
Shabalova, M.V. / 2003 / Assessing future discharge of the river Rhine using regional climate cmodel integrations and a hydrological model / Climate research 23 : 233 ~ 246
김소연 / 2004 / 기후변화로 인한 여름철 혹서현상이 사망률에 미치는 영향 / 박사 / 아주대학교 대학원
박정임 / 2005 / 기후변화가 건강에 미치는 영향및 적응대책 마련- 이상고온으로 인한 초과사망률 연구를 중심으로
Koo, G. S / 2009 / Projection of temperature overKorea using an MM5 regional climatesimulation / Climate research 40 : 241 ~ 248
Shabalova, M.V. / 2003 / Assessing future discharge of the river Rhine using regional climate cmodel integrations and a hydrological model / Climate research 23 : 233 ~ 246
김소연 / 2004 / 기후변화로 인한 여름철 혹서현상이 사망률에 미치는 영향 / 박사 / 아주대학교 대학원
박정임 / 2005 / 기후변화가 건강에 미치는 영향및 적응대책 마련- 이상고온으로 인한 초과사망률 연구를 중심으로
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