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- 연구보고서
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- 2020.4
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The U.S.-China trade war, which had been escalating since early 2018, seemed to abate when the two countries reached their first agreement in December 2019. Following this, the two countries signed a “phase one” deal on January 15 which came into effect on February 14 this year. However, COVID-19 cast a shadow on further implementation of the phase one agreement. The key to the phase one deal is that China will import an additional $200 billion of U.S. products and services above its 2017 levels over the next two years. However, on top of the U.S.-China trade dispute, U.S. production as well as China's consumer demand have been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. In these circumstances, fully realizing the phase one agreement between the U.S. and China seems quite unlikely. The phase one agreement rests upon four pillars ‒ agriculture, energy, manufactured goods, and services ‒ and it will be hard enough for both China and the U.S. to fulfill their phase one commitments in all four aspects. Thus, regarding the U.S.-China trade dispute, we can consider three COVID-19 aftermath scenarios that are highly likely to affect the Korean economy and we need to keep paying close attention to future U.S.-China negotiations.
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