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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
Kripalani, R.H. (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) Oh, J.H. (Integrated Climate System Modeling Laboratory, Department of Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences, Pukyoung National University) Chaudhari, H.S. (Integrated Climate System Modeling Laboratory, Department of Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences, Pukyoung National University)
저널정보
한국제4기학회 제4기학회지 제4기학회지 제19권 제2호
발행연도
2005.1
수록면
50 - 54 (5page)

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Some basic summer precipitation features over East Asia during the $20^{th}-21^{st}$ century as simulated / projected by the 22 coupled climate models under the IPCC AR4 program are investigated. Keeping in view that these are climate runs without prescribed SSTs, models perform well in simulating the regional annual cycle, spatial patterns (not shown) and the inter-annual variability. The projections under the 1% increase in $CO_2$ compounded until reaching double and held constant thereafter reveal that (a) Precipitation is likely to increase in all the months in particular during the summer monsoon (JJA) months. (b) The mean summer monsoon rainfall can increase from 4.2 to 13.5% and its variability is also likely to increase in the warming world due to increase in $CO_2$ (c) Extreme excess and deficient seasonal monsoons are likely to become more intense (not shown here) (d) Once the increase in $CO_2$ is cut-off, the system will reach a state of equilibrium, and then the rate of increase in precipitation is also expected to remain constant.

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