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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 아시아태평양암예방학회 Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP 제17권 제6호
- 발행연도
- 2016.1
- 수록면
- 2,847 - 2,852 (6page)
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Background: Although the breast cancer incidence rate in Japan is lower than in western countries, the age-specific rates have markedly increased in recent years, along with the problems of declining birth rate and an aging population. Materials and Methods: We examined past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence using data from the Osaka Cancer Registry from 1976 to 2010, and estimated future trends until 2025 based on the changes observed and population dynamics using a log linear regression model. Results: The age-specific breast cancer incidence rate has increased consistently from the 1970s, and the rates have caught up with those of Japanese-Americans in the US. Assuming the increasing tendency of age-specific breast cancer incidence to be constant, the average annual incidence of breast cancer will increase 1.7-fold from 2006-2010 to 2021-2025. Furthermore, the number of patients aged 80 years should increase 3.4-fold. Conclusions: The medical demand for breast cancer care in Japan may increase explosively in the future, particularly among the elderly. We need to prepare for such a future increase in demand for care, although careful monitoring is needed to confirm these results.
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