Cervical Cancer Mortality Trends in China, 1991-2013, and Predictions for the Future

Du, Pei-Ling; Wu, Ku-Sheng; Fang, Jia-Ying; Zeng, Yang; Xu, Zhen-Xi; Tang, Wen-Rui; Xu, Xiao-Ling; Lin, Kun

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자료유형: 학술저널

저자정보: Du, Pei-Ling (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Wu, Ku-Sheng (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Fang, Jia-Ying (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Zeng, Yang (Shantou University Medical College) Xu, Zhen-Xi (Shantou University Medical College) Tang, Wen-Rui (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) Xu, Xiao-Ling (Shantou University Medical College) Lin, Kun (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College)

저널정보: 아시아태평양암예방학회 Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention : APJCP 제16권 제15호

발행연도: 2015.1

수록면: 6,391 - 6,396 (6page)

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Background: To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortality distribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortality trends. Results: In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steady increase in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group. In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwest to west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country. Conclusions: The incidence rate and the mortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus, implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central).

#Cervical cancer #epidemiological characteristics #geographic distribution #standardized mortality

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