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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
Samir A. Haydar (Maine Medical Center Tufts University) Tania D. Strout (Maine Medical Center Tufts University) Alicia G. Bond (Emergency Medicine Providence Medical center) Paul KJ Han (Maine Medical Center Tufts University School of Medicine)
저널정보
대한응급의학회 Clinical and Experimental Emergency Medicine Clinical and Experimental Emergency Medicine Vol.6 No.1
발행연도
2019.1
수록면
70 - 76 (7page)

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Objective Few reliable and valid prognostic tools are available to help emergency physicians identify patients who might benefit from early palliative approaches. We sought to determine if responses to a modified version of the surprise question, “Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 30 days” could predict in-hospital mortality and resource utilization for hospitalized emergency department patients. Methods For this observational study, emergency physicians responded to the modified surprise question with each admission over a five-month study period. Logistic regression analyses were completed and standard test characteristics evaluated. Results 6,122 visits were evaluated. Emergency physicians responded negatively to the modified surprise question in 918 (15.1%). Test characteristics for in-hospital mortality were: sensitivity 32%, specificity 85%, positive predictive value 6%, negative predictive value 98%. The risk of intensive care unit use (relative risk [RR], 1.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45 to 2.40), use of ‘comfort measures’ orders (RR, 3.43; 95% CI, 2.81 to 4.18), palliative-care consultation (RR, 3.06; 95% CI, 2.62 to 3.56), and in-hospital mortality (RR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.72 to 2.76) were greater for patients with negative responses. Conclusion The modified surprise question is a simple trigger for palliative care needs, accurately identifying those at greater risk for in-hospital mortality and resource utilization. With a negative predictive value of 98%, affirmative responses to the modified surprise question provide reassurance that in-hospital death is unlikely.

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