지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
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At present there are numerous forecasting methods available. After reviewing these methods, this study estimates the Korean outbound and inbound tourists based on the econometric models. Two types of quantitative forecasting models were considered in this paper, time series and causal econometric model. The paper proceeds by comparing the forecasting performances of the structural models with those of the nonstructural model such as Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, concluding that the former outperforms the latter. Author also shows that while the outbound tourists increase rapidly, the inbound tourists increase slowly and the balance of trade deficit is expected to grow fast.
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