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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
최은정 (한국천문연구원) 조성기 (한국천문연구원) 이덕진 (군산대학교) 김시우 (한국과학기술원) 조정현 (한국천문연구원)
저널정보
한국우주과학회 Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences 제34권 제4호
발행연도
2017.12
수록면
289 - 302 (14page)
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5140/JASS.2017.34.4.289

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The key risk analysis technologies for the re-entry of space objects into Earth’s atmosphere are divided into four categories: cataloguing and databases of the re-entry of space objects, lifetime and re-entry trajectory predictions, break-up models after re-entry and multiple debris distribution predictions, and ground impact probability models. In this study, we focused on reentry prediction, including orbital lifetime assessments, for space situational awareness systems. Re-entry predictions are very difficult and are affected by various sources of uncertainty. In particular, during uncontrolled re-entry, large spacecraft may break into several pieces of debris, and the surviving fragments can be a significant hazard for persons and properties on the ground. In recent years, specific methods and procedures have been developed to provide clear information for predicting and analyzing the re-entry of space objects and for ground-risk assessments. Representative tools include object reentry survival analysis tool (ORSAT) and debris assessment software (DAS) developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), spacecraft atmospheric re-entry and aerothermal break-up (SCARAB) and debris risk assessment and mitigation analysis (DRAMA) developed by European Space Agency (ESA), and semi-analytic tool for end of life analysis (STELA) developed by Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES). In this study, various surveys of existing re-entry space objects are reviewed, and an efficient re-entry prediction technique is suggested based on STELA, the life-cycle analysis tool for satellites, and DRAMA, a re-entry analysis tool. To verify the proposed method, the re-entry of the Tiangong-1 Space Lab, which is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere shortly, was simulated. Eventually, these results will provide a basis for space situational awareness risk analyses of the re-entry of space objects.

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