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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2025.3
- 수록면
- 117 - 148 (32page)
- DOI
- 10.46694/JSS.2025.3.40.1.117
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초록· 키워드
This study provides an in-depth analysis of the Russian war economy following the onset of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, with a particular focus on its structural realities and key economic risks. Official Russian statistics are characterized by low reliability, as they are employed as instruments of information control and propaganda. Consequently, the actual economic conditions in Russia are likely to be significantly more severe than reported. The study underscores the necessity of utilizing alternative indicators and external institutional analyses to attain a more accurate understanding of the Russian economy.
The primary risks associated with Russia's war economy are identified as fiscal instability and labor market overheating. On the fiscal front, declining oil and gas export revenues, coupled with escalating war expenditures, have exacerbated the budget deficit. Additionally, the rapid depletion of liquid assets within the National Wealth Fund (NWF) has heightened the risk of a fiscal crisis. In the labor market, large-scale military mobilization and emigration have resulted in an acute labor shortage. Despite historically low unemployment rates, soaring wages and declining productivity have emerged as major concerns. This overheating of the labor market has intensified inflationary pressures, compelling the Central Bank to maintain high interest rates, which in turn have become a significant constraint on business activity.
In conclusion, while Russia’s war economy demonstrates short-term growth, the study warns of deepening structural stagnation and long-term economic instability. To mitigate these risks, policy measures such as economic diversification, labor force stabilization, and financial market stabilization are recommended.
The primary risks associated with Russia's war economy are identified as fiscal instability and labor market overheating. On the fiscal front, declining oil and gas export revenues, coupled with escalating war expenditures, have exacerbated the budget deficit. Additionally, the rapid depletion of liquid assets within the National Wealth Fund (NWF) has heightened the risk of a fiscal crisis. In the labor market, large-scale military mobilization and emigration have resulted in an acute labor shortage. Despite historically low unemployment rates, soaring wages and declining productivity have emerged as major concerns. This overheating of the labor market has intensified inflationary pressures, compelling the Central Bank to maintain high interest rates, which in turn have become a significant constraint on business activity.
In conclusion, while Russia’s war economy demonstrates short-term growth, the study warns of deepening structural stagnation and long-term economic instability. To mitigate these risks, policy measures such as economic diversification, labor force stabilization, and financial market stabilization are recommended.
#전시경제
#재정 적자
#노동력 부족
#국방비 지출
#통계 신뢰성
#War Economy
#Fiscal Deficit
#Labor Shortage
#Military Spending
#Statistical Reliability
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목차
- Ⅰ. 들어가는 말
- Ⅱ. 러시아 공식 통계와 해석의 한계
- Ⅲ. 러시아 경제의 주요 리스크 요인
- Ⅳ. 맺는말
- 참고문헌
- Abstract
참고문헌
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