지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2025.4
- 수록면
- 209 - 226 (18page)
- DOI
- 10.15531/KSCCR.2025.16.2.209
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
This study combines Vietnam’s rice production data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) with climate data to estimate the stochastic impact of climate on rice productivity (yield) in Vietnam. The analysis utilizes the Just-Pope production function to assess how annual weather fluctuations or cross-sectional variance in long-term climate affect the expected value and variability of rice productivity. Also, the impact of climate change on current productivity levels is measured using a simulation method. The estimation results reveal that rising temperatures would initially increase the expected value of rice productivity to a certain threshold, but then would decrease it beyond that level. Furthermore, temperature rise could reduce variability in rice yield. Increased rainfall would reduce expected productivity while increasing variability. This study estimates multiple specifications of the Just-Pope function to assess the robustness of the results across varying model specifications. Simulations using historical climate data confirm that climate change has already reduced the expected value of rice productivity. Results are mixed in terms of variability, as simulations show that climate change has reduced the variability of northern regions while increasing that of southern regions. A comparison of the individual effects of temperature and rainfall suggests that these two variables tend to have opposite effects on expected value and variability, where the effects of rainfall tend to outweigh those of temperature. Also, models incorporating climate variables show a greater magnitude of change in expected value and variability than models based on short-term weather variables. These findings highlight that climate change is already affecting current agricultural productivity levels, emphasizing the urgency of implementing appropriate adaptation measures.
목차
ABSTRACT
1. 서론
2. 분석 모형
3. 분석 데이터
4. 분석 결과
5. 요약 및 결론
Reference
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