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This study aims to quantify the technological spillover effects of developing domestic advanced engines, specifically low-bypass turbofan engines, within the aerospace industry. Previous studies have primarily relied on qualitative research, industry-related analysis, and patent citation analysis to assess spillover effects. However, these approaches are often commercially focused, fail to capture broader macroeconomic impacts, and do not fully reflect the unique characteristics of the aerospace sector. To address these limitations, this study seeks to express the expected spillover effects of domestic advanced engine development in terms of economic value. A technology spillover effect model was proposed, and the corresponding impact and industrial scale were measured. Using data from the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning, core technologies of advanced engines were classified into six categories, with direct and indirect effects assessed separately. Direct effects were analyzed within the aerospace and power generation industries, while related industries were categorized into eight sectors based on a literature review. The value assessment combined literature research with expert surveys to capture both objective data and subjective insights. At the ripple effect estimation stage, technology value evaluation coefficients and actual market size were adjusted to ensure more objective results. The final analysis estimated that the technological spillover effect from domestic advanced engine development would range from approximately USD 911 million to USD 5.8 billion, while the ripple market size was projected to be between USD 18.2 billion and USD 29.0 billion. These findings can inform defense industry R&D planning, particularly for 15,000 lbf-class fighters that could incorporate domestically developed engines. Additionally, this research is expected to support performance enhancements in existing domestic fighters and contribute to defense industry exports.
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