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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2025.6
- 수록면
- 109 - 133 (27page)
- DOI
- 10.46694/JSS.2025.6.40.2.109
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초록· 키워드
The Russian special military operation of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marked a critical rupture in the post-Cold War international order. This study analyzes the war’s causes from a diachronic perspective, categorizing them into long-term, medium-term, and short-term structural factors, while emphasizing the immediate trigger rooted in Russia’s strategic misjudgment and internal groupthink dynamics. NATO’s continuous eastward expansion and the growing Western influence aggravated Russia’s security anxieties, while Ukraine’s pro-Western turn and the 2019 constitutional revision heightened tensions in Moscow’s strategic calculus. However, structural tensions alone cannot fully explain the outbreak of war. This paper argues that decision-making within the authoritarian system-characterized by internal cohesion, filtered information, and mythologized perceptions- led to a severe misreading of the strategic environment. Drawing on Irving Janis’s theory of groupthink, the study contends that Putin’s regime committed a preventable strategic error. This analysis reframes the war not as an inevitable outcome of systemic forces, but as a failure of political choice, offering vital lessons for security and foreign policy in geopolitically vulnerable states like South Korea.
Russia-Ukraine war may be interpreted as an inevitable act driven by national security concerns and the pursuit of strategic depth. However, it simultaneously constitutes a significant strategic miscalculation. The initial expectation that the conflict would conclude swiftly proved erroneous, and the protracted nature of the war has imposed growing political, military, and economic burdens on Russia. As the war enters its third year without resolution, the future trajectory remains uncertain. In this context, former U.S. President Donald Trump, known for his characteristic ‘big deal’ political instinct, emerges as one of the few figures potentially capable of brokering a political settlement. He may offer President Vladimir Putin a dignified exit strategy, provide President Volodymyr Zelensky with guarantees to preserve political face, and deliver a dramatic scene of success for the Western bloc.
Russia-Ukraine war may be interpreted as an inevitable act driven by national security concerns and the pursuit of strategic depth. However, it simultaneously constitutes a significant strategic miscalculation. The initial expectation that the conflict would conclude swiftly proved erroneous, and the protracted nature of the war has imposed growing political, military, and economic burdens on Russia. As the war enters its third year without resolution, the future trajectory remains uncertain. In this context, former U.S. President Donald Trump, known for his characteristic ‘big deal’ political instinct, emerges as one of the few figures potentially capable of brokering a political settlement. He may offer President Vladimir Putin a dignified exit strategy, provide President Volodymyr Zelensky with guarantees to preserve political face, and deliver a dramatic scene of success for the Western bloc.
#러시아-우크라이나 전쟁
#집단사고
#지정학
#푸틴
#부다페스트 각서
#Russia-Ukraine War
#groupthink
#geopolitics
#Putin
#NATO
#Budapest Memorandum
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목차
- I. 서론: 문제제기
- II. 장기적 원인: 냉전의 유산과 NATO 확장의 구조적 긴장
- III. 중기적 원인: 색깔혁명과 질서 충돌의 축적
- IV. 단기적 원인과 결정적 계기: 안보 딜레마와 집단사고
- V. 결론
- 참고문헌
- Abstract
참고문헌
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