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초록· 키워드
This paper investigates the global imbalance problem with regard to why it has been deteriorated since 2000, whether there is adjustability or not, and policy tasks to lead to orderly soft-landing. There are two typical views about the causes and mechanism of the global imbalances. The first one asserts that the fundamental cause of the problem is twin deficit in the United States, namely the large U.S. government deficit and the lack of U.S. net private saving. This view warns that further exacerbation of global imbalance could increase the vulnerability of U.S. economy to various shocks and the collapse of dollar since foreigners' demand for U.S. assets can not be sustainable. The second theory, so called 'the Bretton Woods II' model, argues that China and East-Asia's export-led strategy with undervalued fixed exchange rates is the principle cause of the global imbalance. The 'the Bretton Woods II' theory is not so concerned with the global imbalance since under the current Bretton Woods-like system many central banks do not want their currencies to be depreciated, consequently they will maintain strong demand for U.S. assets for long time. This paper finds that the shortage of U.S. net private saving has distinctly influenced recent global imbalance, while the dollar value measured by real effective exchange rate is not substantially overvalued. Thus, as the global imbalance is getting worse, the riskiness is also increasing. These results mean that recent global imbalance is different from that of the early 1980s in terms of mechanism and policies to correct the imbalance.
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목차
- Ⅰ. 서론
- Ⅱ. 기존 문헌 고찰
- Ⅲ. 글로벌 불균형의 메커니즘
- Ⅳ. 글로벌 불균형의 조정가능성과 정책과제
- Ⅴ. 결론
- 참고 문헌
- 〈Abstract〉
참고문헌
참고문헌 신청최근 본 자료
UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2009-305-019541130
