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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2026.5
- 수록면
- 157 - 171 (15page)
이용수
초록· 키워드
This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on soil loss in the reclaimed coastal farmlands of South Korea using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model coupled with CMIP6-based multi-model ensemble (MME) climate projections. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP1-2.6 (low-emission) and SSP5-8.5 (high-emission), were analyzed for the near-future (2041 - 2070) and far-future (2071 - 2100) periods. Slope conditions were represented by three field treatments (0°, 3°, and 5°) established in large-scale reclaimed plots (40 × 45 m). To capture within-plot hydrologic variability and support slope-specific model calibration, soil water content was monitored at upper, middle, and lower sections for the 3° and 5° plots. The model demonstrated reliable performance, yielding coefficient of determination (R²) values exceeding 0.5 across all slope conditions. Simulation results indicated that average soil loss increased with slope gradient and was substantially exacerbated under the high-emission scenario. Under SSP1-2.6, the mean annual soil loss for the 5° slope increased by 49.7%, from 1.49 t ha<sup>-1</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup> (2041 - 2070) to 2.23 t ha<sup>-1</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup> (2071 - 2100). Under SSP5-8.5, the same slope exhibited a 72.0% surge, rising from 1.51 to 2.59 t ha<sup>-1</sup> yr<sup>-1</sup>. Notably, even in flat areas (0°), soil loss increased by 22 - 44% depending on the scenario. The majority of this erosion was concentrated during the summer months (July - August), driven by intensified monsoon rainfall. These results underscore the increasing vulnerability of reclaimed coastal farmlands to long-term climate change. Ultimately, this study provides quantitative evidence to support targeted policies for sustaining soil productivity, improving field drainage, and ensuring the long-term sustainability of coastal agricultural lands.
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목차
- ABSTRACT
- Introduction
- Materials and Methods
- Results and Discussion
- Conclusions
- References
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