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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국통계학회 CSAM(Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods) CSAM(Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods) 제33권 제3호
- 발행연도
- 2026.5
- 수록면
- 329 - 353 (25page)
이용수
초록· 키워드
This study presents a Bayesian spatial voting analysis of the Colombian Senate during the 2006-2010 legislative period, leveraging a newly constructed roll–call dataset comprising 147 senators and 136 plenary votes. We estimate legislators’ ideal points, understood as latent positions in an underlying policy space that summarize each senator’s overall political preferences, under two alternative geometric frameworks: a traditional Euclidean model and a circular model that embeds preferences on the unit circle. Both models are implemented using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, with the circular specification capturing geodesic distances and von Mises–distributed latent traits. The results reveal a latent structure in voting behavior best characterized not by a conventional left–right ideological continuum but by an opposition–non–opposition alignment. We then study the “parapolitics” scandal, a major episode in which numerous Colombian politicians were investigated and prosecuted for alleged ties to paramilitary groups. Using Bayesian logistic regression, we investigate the association between senators’ ideal points and their involvement in this scandal. Findings indicate a significant and robust relationship between political alignment and parapolitics implication, suggesting that extralegal influence was systematically related to senators’ legislative behavior during this period.
#Euclidean spatial voting model
#spherical spatial voting model
#Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
#parapolitics
#roll-call data
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목차
- Abstract
- 1. Introduction
- 2. Bayesian estimation of ideal points
- 3. Colombian Senate 2006-2010 and parapolitics
- 4. Computation
- 5. Results
- 6. Discussion
- References
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