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한국체육과학회 한국체육과학회지 한국체육과학회지 제35권 제5호 (자연과학 편)
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    초록·키워드

    This study examined year-to-year performance changes among korean professional baseball rookie of the year award recipients to distinguish whether observed declines are attributable to regression to the mean (RTM) or represent a genuine sophomore slump.
    The results showed no statistically significant difference in batting average between the award year and the following season for hitters. After accounting for RTM, the decline in batting average was not statistically meaningful, indicating no clear evidence of a sophomore slump. In contrast, pitchers exhibited statistically significant declines in both wins and earned run average (ERA) in the following season. Comparisons with RTM estimates revealed that these declines could not be fully explained by regression effects alone, suggesting the presence of a genuine sophomore slump.
    Overall, the findings indicate that performance decline among Rookie of the Year recipients is not consistent across all performance indicators. Therefore, it is difficult to generalize such declines as a universal sophomore slump. Future research should investigate whether this phenomenon is specific to Rookie of the Year players or extends to other player groups and sports.

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