인문학
사회과학
자연과학
공학
의약학
농수해양학
예술체육학
복합학
DBpia AI
AI 에이전트
AI 아이디어
AI 리더
AI 뷰어
Citeasy
크롬 서지관리 다운로드
지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록·키워드
Abstract Train timetables and operations are defined by the train running time in sections, dwell time at stations, and headways between trains. Accurate estimation of these factors is essential to decision-making for train delay reduction, train dispatching, and station capacity estimation. In the present study, we aim to propose a train dwell time model based on an averaging mechanism and dynamic updating to address the challenges in the train dwell time prediction problem (e.g., dynamics over time, heavy-tailed distribution of data, and spatiotemporal relationships of factors) for real-time train dispatching. The averaging mechanism in the present study is based on multiple state-of-the-art base predictors, enabling the proposed model to integrate the advantages of the base predictors in addressing the challenges in terms of data attributes and data distributions. Then, considering the influence of passenger flow on train dwell time, we use a dynamic updating method based on exponential smoothing to improve the performance of the proposed method by considering the real-time passenger amount fluctuations (e.g., passenger soars in peak hours or passenger plunges during regular periods). We conduct experiments with the train operation data and passenger flow data from the Chinese high-speed railway line. The results show that due to the advantages over the base predictors, the averaging mechanism can more accurately predict the dwell time at stations than its counterparts for different prediction horizons regarding predictive errors and variances. Further, the experimental results show that dynamic smoothing can significantly improve the accuracy of the proposed model during passenger amount changes, i.e., 15.4% and 15.5% corresponding to the mean absolute error and root mean square error, respectively. Based on the proposed predictor, a feature importance analysis shows that the planned dwell time and arrival delay are the two most important factors to dwell time. However, planned time has positive influences, whereas arrival delay has negative influences.
인공지능 문자 인식 모델을 통해 추출된 텍스트로, 일부 오타나 오류가 포함될 수 있으나 지속적으로 개선 중입니다.
오류를 발견하셨다면 해당 부분을 드래그한 후 ' 를 통해 신고해주세요.
오류를 발견하셨다면 해당 부분을 드래그한 후 ' 를 통해 신고해주세요.
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