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Oxford University Press (OUP) Evolution Letters 8(1)
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    초록·키워드

    Rapid evolutionary adaptation could reduce the negative impacts of climate change if sufficient heritability of key traits exists under future climate conditions. Plastic responses to climate change could also reduce negative impacts. Understanding which populations are likely to respond via evolution or plasticity could therefore improve estimates of extinction risk. A large body of research suggests that the evolutionary and plastic potential of a population can be predicted by the degree of spatial and temporal climatic variation it experiences. However, we know little about the scale at which these relationships apply. Here, we test if spatial and temporal variation in temperature affects genetic variation and plasticity of fitness and a key thermal tolerance trait (critical thermal maximum; CT<sub>max</sub>) at microgeographic scales using a metapopulation of <i>Daphnia magna</i> in freshwater rock pools. Specifically, we ask if (a) there is a microgeographic adaptation of CT<sub>max</sub> and fitness to differences in temperature among the pools, (b) pools with greater temporal temperature variation have more genetic variation or plasticity in CT<sub>max</sub> or fitness, and (c) increases in temperature affect the heritability of CT<sub>max</sub> and fitness. Although we observed genetic variation and plasticity in CT<sub>max</sub> and fitness, and differences in fitness among pools, we did not find support for the predicted relationships between temperature variation and genetic variation or plasticity. Furthermore, the genetic variation and plasticity we observed in CT<sub>max</sub> are unlikely sufficient to reduce the impacts of climate change. CT<sub>max</sub> plasticity was minimal and heritability was 72% lower when <i>D. magna</i> developed at the higher temperatures predicted under climate change. In contrast, the heritability of fitness increased by 53% under warmer temperatures, suggesting an increase in overall evolutionary potential unrelated to CT<sub>max</sub> under climate change. More research is needed to understand the evolutionary and plastic potential under climate change and how that potential will be altered in future climates.

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