인문학
사회과학
자연과학
공학
의약학
농수해양학
예술체육학
복합학
DBpia AI
AI 에이전트
AI 아이디어
AI 리더
AI 뷰어
Citeasy
크롬 서지관리 다운로드
지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록·키워드
Changes in the water surface level at any part of the World Ocean coast significantly affect the intensity of coastal destruction, and can cause considerable damage to the population and ecosystems of coastal zones. When planning measures to protect the Black Sea coast from the dangerous consequences of further sea level rise, its forecast is necessary, which has satisfactory justification and sufficient advance time. Existing predictive models ensure the development of forecasts with the required advance time, but often their justifiability is low. Therefore, the assessment of the feasibility of forecasts of sea level changes corresponding to various scenarios of further changes in the regional climate is an urgent problem of climatology, environmental safety and environmental management. The scenario of further changes in the indicator under consideration, which assumes that their statistical properties will remain the same in the future as they were in the past, is among the likely ones. To develop a forecast of the process under study that corresponds to this scenario and is optimal by the criterion of minimum standard error, the method of linear multiple regression can be applied. The main factors determining changes in the Black Sea level are water balance characteristics, in particular river runoff, whose contribution to the total volume of water entering the sea is significant and depends on the area of the catchment area and the amount of precipitation. The purpose of this work is to develop forecasts of sea level changes based on taking into account changes in the hydrothermal regime of the catchment area, and to assess their feasibility with a 1-year lead time. When assessing the feasibility of forecasts, the prehistory of changes in the Black Sea level according to measurements from the Yalta and Sevastopol marine hydrometeorological stations and the hydrothermal regime of its catchment area are taken into account. The composition of predictors of predictive models has been determined, which ensures satisfactory justification of their forecasts. It has been established that the suspension of the Black Sea level rise in 2011-2023 was largely caused by changes in the hydrothermal regime of its basin.
인공지능 문자 인식 모델을 통해 추출된 텍스트로, 일부 오타나 오류가 포함될 수 있으나 지속적으로 개선 중입니다.
오류를 발견하셨다면 해당 부분을 드래그한 후 ' 를 통해 신고해주세요.
오류를 발견하셨다면 해당 부분을 드래그한 후 ' 를 통해 신고해주세요.
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