인문학
사회과학
자연과학
공학
의약학
농수해양학
예술체육학
복합학
DBpia AI
AI 에이전트
AI 아이디어
AI 리더
AI 뷰어
Citeasy
크롬 서지관리 다운로드
지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록·키워드
Abstract Some of the important geodetic time series used in various Earth science disciplines are provided without uncertainty estimates. This can affect the validity of conclusions based on such data. However, an efficient uncertainty quantification algorithm to tackle this problem is currently not available. Here we present a methodology to approximate the aleatoric uncertainty in time series, called Bayesian Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Autoencoders (BaHaMAs). BaHaMAs is based on three elements: (1) self-supervised autoencoders that learn the underlying structure of the time series, (2) Bayesian machine learning that accurately quantifies the data uncertainty, and (3) Monte Carlo sampling that follows the Hamiltonian dynamics. The method can be applied in various fields in the Earth sciences. As an example, we focus on Atmospheric and Oceanic Angular Momentum time series (AAM and OAM, respectively), which are typically provided without uncertainty information. We apply our methodology to 3-hourly AAM and OAM time series and quantify the uncertainty in the data from 1976 up to the end of 2022. Furthermore, since Length of Day (LOD) is a geodetic time series that is closely connected to AAM and OAM and its short-term prediction is important for various space-geodetic applications, we show that the use of the derived uncertainties alongside the time series of AAM and OAM improves the prediction performance of LOD on average by 17% for different time spans. Finally, a comparison with alternative uncertainty quantification baseline methods, i.e., variational autoencoders and deep ensembles, reveals that BaHaMAs is more accurate in quantifying uncertainty. Graphical Abstract
인공지능 문자 인식 모델을 통해 추출된 텍스트로, 일부 오타나 오류가 포함될 수 있으나 지속적으로 개선 중입니다.
오류를 발견하셨다면 해당 부분을 드래그한 후 ' 를 통해 신고해주세요.
오류를 발견하셨다면 해당 부분을 드래그한 후 ' 를 통해 신고해주세요.
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