인문학
사회과학
자연과학
공학
의약학
농수해양학
예술체육학
복합학
DBpia AI
AI 에이전트
AI 아이디어
AI 리더
AI 뷰어
Citeasy
크롬 서지관리 다운로드
지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
피인용 0
초록·키워드
This paper joins the balance-of-payments-constrained (BOPC) growth literature to the middle-income trap debate by defining a BOPC middle-income trap: a state in which a country’s BOPC growth rate, y<sub>bp</sub>=εz/π, falls short of the real GDP growth required to cross the high-income threshold by a stated target date. Unlike growth-slowdown or duration-based criteria, the test is ex ante and demand-side, and it decomposes into closed-form critical values for the income elasticities of exports and imports and for world income growth. Vietnam, an upper-middle-income economy since 2026 and committed to high-income status by 2045, must grow at 6.03% a year, or 6.58% on the World Bank’s benchmark. Elasticities estimated from 1990–2024 data by DOLS and by a growth-rate regression that does not presuppose cointegration place the BOPC growth rate at 5.89–6.48%, close to the 6.69% actually recorded; cointegration is not confirmed in annual data, so the level estimates are read as conditional long-run coefficients. Propagating estimation uncertainty through a moving-block bootstrap, the probability of missing the target is 8–57% at the historical average rate of world growth but 71–86% under the World Bank’s forecast, and the critical rate of world growth, 2.76%, all but coincides with the 2016–2025 average. Vietnam is thus not yet trapped, but its margin is thin and rests on an external environment that is deteriorating. Deepening backward linkages between foreign-invested and domestic firms would relax both the import-intensity and the income-transfer channels through which assembly-based growth tightens the external constraint.
본문·목차
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