인문학
사회과학
자연과학
공학
의약학
농수해양학
예술체육학
복합학
DBpia AI
AI 에이전트
AI 아이디어
AI 리더
AI 뷰어
Citeasy
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지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
피인용 0
초록·키워드
This study examines the level of sanctions below which Korea–Russia cooperation on Arctic liquefied natural gas (LNG) can become evolutionarily stable. Previous research has focused on static route cost comparisons and has treated sanctions as an external cost factor. This study constructs a two-population asymmetric evolutionary game between Korean and Russian decision-making entities, in which sanction intensity is explicitly incorporated into the payoff functions, and analytically derives the critical sanction threshold s<sup>*</sup>=min(s<sup>*</sup><sub>K</sub>, s<sup>*</sup><sub>R</sub>) at which mutual cooperation becomes an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS). The parameters are calibrated using Clarksons Research data on LNG prices and newbuilding prices, the 2026 Hormuz Strait blockade, and the observed market behavior of Arctic LNG 2 cargoes in 2025, which were sold at a discount of about 27% yet found no buyer other than a single Chinese terminal. Under the baseline calibration, the analysis yields three main findings. First, the critical thresholds are 0.547 for Korea and 1.405 for Russia, indicating that Korea’s condition is the binding constraint on cooperation. Second, mutual non-cooperation remains an ESS at every sanction level, generating a bistable structure. The basin of attraction for cooperation expands from 0% under the current sanction level (s=0.8) to about 68% under partial easing (s=0.4) and about 96% under lifting (s=0.1). Third, since the observed market behavior identifies the current sanction cost rather than the sanction index itself, the current level exceeds the threshold by a factor of 1.35–1.58; under the baseline assumptions, this judgment would be reversed only if the observed discount were below 17.7%. These findings suggest that easing sanctions does not automatically lead to cooperation, and that reducing sanction exposure costs through trade finance, payment, insurance, and contractual arrangements, together with building initial trust, is essential for future cooperation.
본문·목차
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