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논문 기본 정보

저자정보
(Pusan National University) (Pusan National University) (Pusan National University)
저널정보
대한국토·도시계획학회 국토계획 國土計劃 第61卷 第5號(通卷 第293號)
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    초록·키워드

    This study was conducted as a follow-up study to “Study on Characteristics of Area Types Based on Rainfall Damage Amounts” and developed a composite vulnerability typology by integrating temporal trends and spatial clustering characteristics of heavy rainfall damage. All municipalities (Si, Gun, and Gu) in South Korea were targeted and heavy rainfall damage data from 2014 to 2023 were utilized. For temporal analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope, and Pettitt test were employed to examine damage trends, quantify their magnitude, and detect change points. For spatial analysis, Global Moran’s I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association examined spatial autocorrelation and local clustering patterns.
    A total of 16 of the 229 municipalities exhibited a statistically significant increasing damage trends, while approximately 61% displayed worsening damage structures or new damage following detected change points. Global Moran’s I confirmed positive spatial autocorrelation, with high-high and low-low clusters concentrated in the central and southeastern inland regions, respectively. Integrating temporal and spatial dimensions with the existing magnitude-based classification yielded seven composite risk types. In particular, the Low-Damage Rising Trend Type identified emerging risk areas not captured by magnitude-based classification alone.
    This study interprets heavy rainfall damage through temporal persistence and spatial clustering, providing a basis for prioritizing disaster management and establishing region-specific adaptation strategies.

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