商品은 現物 또는 先物의 형태로 去來 된다. 우리나라에서는 先物을 거래하는 商品去來所 조직이 없어 鷄卵先物去來라 하면 생소 하기만 할 것이다. 合法的이며 組織的인 市場을 통하여 採卵業者가 앞으로 生産할 鷄卵을 미리 판다든가 계란加工業者 또는 小賣業者가 몇달후에 필요한 鷄卵을 미리 산다는등 좀처럼 一般人의 常識에 이해가 안가는 去來方式이 바로 鷄卵先物去來인 것이다. 우리에게 이와 비슷한 經驗이 있다면 商人이 物量確保 또는 暴利를 목적으로 生産以前에 資産을 先渡 한다던가 또는 소위 立稻先賣라 하여 收穫이전에 資金前渡하던것이 고작이겠는데 이는 모두가 非組織的이며 現金이 필요한 生産者를 收奪하는 수단이었으므로 여기서 말 하는 能率的 市場機能인 先物去來의 本質과는 判異한 것이다. 다만 日帝때의 仁川米豆取引所, 群山米穀去來所등은 先物市場이었다고 할 수 있다.
우리나라의 採卵業界가 이제까지 價格不安定에서 헤어나지 못하는 理由는 鷄卵의 需給不均衡과 流通, 價格機構의 不合理 때문이라 할 수 있다. 이중에서도 가격形成機構의 문제점은 採卵業 전체의 不安要因이 되고 있다. 어떻게 하여 가격안정을 期할 것인가? 公正한 가격형성의 極端的 발전형태라 할 수 있는 先物市場制度는 문제해결의 좋은 도구로 활용되고 있다.
本稿는 先物市場의 일반적사항과 美國의 鷄卵先物去來를 간략히 紹介하여 이 부문에 대한 觀心을 촉구 하고자 한다.
What is a Futures Market ?
On the Chicago Meracntile Exchange, individuals and firms buy and sell contracts for specified amounts of products that are to be delivered at a time period in the future at a price arrived at through openly competitive bidding. The transfer of ownership of these delivery promises takes place in a particular trading pit, for each commodity, on the floor of the Exchange. Trades are officially made by qualified members of the Exchange who act as brokers for their customers. For his services, the broker is paid a nominal round-turn commission fee by the customer. Although each commodity contract carefully describes the particular standards that product must meet in order to be a acceptable for delivery, actually fewer than three percent of the contracts traded are consummated by delivery.
For the most part, contract obligations are offset, and thereby liquidated, before the termination of the delivery month. The trader liquidates his position in the market after analyzing price trends, his timing, and his calculated price objectives.
What is A Futures Contract ?
A futures contract is a legally binding instrument to buy or to sell a specified quantity and quality of a particular commodity at some future time period. Price is arrived at through openly competitive bidding, and trading in the contracts is conducted in an orderly fashion under the rules and regulations of the Exchange, along with the regulations of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States government.
Time of delivery covered by the contracts may be as much as 18 months into the future. In the case of fresh, shell eggs and nest-run eggs separate trading is conducted in each of the 12 months of the year. Each contract represents 750 cases of 30 dozen each, or 22,500 dozen, commonly known as one carload.
Who Trades Futures and Why ?
The futures market is utilized by two general groupings of traders-those who sepeculate, or assume risk, and who are reimbursed by the excitement and profit potential of their trades ; and those who hedge against price risk inherent in their business and are protected by the insurance provided by their trading positions. Although these two groups are categorized as speculators and hedgers, respectively, their trading patterns frequently will overlap.
Both hedgers and speculators are aware that the Exchange, the Federal government, and the brokers provide facts and guidance material that will help them to evaluate market trends. They also realize that the small margin (earnest money) required by the brokerage firms (usually as little as 5 to 10 percent of the contract value) ties up much less of their funds than many other investment vehicles. Both hedgers and speculators are essential to each other. Without one group accepting the financial risk that the other group could not afford to take, there would be no trade "fluidity". In other words, market entry and egress would be much more difficult.
Hedging
The risks accepted by farmers and other businessmen take different forms : among them are the loss of products by fire, wind, rain, and theft. Insurance is available to cover most of such losses.
One type of losses however, that insurance companies do not cover is the loss that occurs due to price change. Since commercial insurance is not applicable in the economic world for reducing risk and uncertainty resulting from price change, the capitalistic system has developed the practice of hedging on commodity futures exchanges.
Hedging is defined as the purchase or sale of a futures contract as a temporary substitute for a merchandising transaction that will be made at a later date. Usually, this involves opposite transactions in the futures market from those made, or to be made, in the cash market. It is anticipated that since the price movements in the two markets are related, any loss in one market will be at least partially offset by a gain in the other, and thus, loss through price change will be reduced, possibly eliminated.
The purpose of the hedge is to protect the merchandising profit anticipated by a handler of a commodity. Merchandising profit is distinguished from specualtive profit in that the merchandising profit results from producing, processing, storing, or marketing the actual commodity whereas speculative profit results solely from changes in price and is not the result of a manufacturing or marketing function. For example, a broker who buys eggs is primarily interested in transforming the shell eggs into liquid whole egg, albumen, or yolk as efficiently as possible. The broker prefers to leave the assumption of price risk to some other person who is interested in a product in the hope of making a profit through price change in the futures market. This other person is referred to as a speculator. By assuming risks of price change, the speculator provides many valuable economic functions. His presence in the market gives it both liquidity and continuity.
Basis
The essence of profit and loss in the hedging of eggs is the accurate calculation of the basis for a particular delivery month. The basis is the difference between two prices representing different locations, different qualities, or different markets. Although there are several different concepts of the basis, the term basis, when applied to fresh, shell eggs, refers to the difference between a trader's local cash price, including adjustments for quality, and the futures price.
With futures contracts, such as those for fresh, shell eggs which are continuously produced, limited-storage-life commodities, the relationship of the cash price to the futures price has relatively little meaning except during the contract month. Hence, accurate calculation of the basis for a particular delivery month is most important in effective hedging of fresh, shell eggs. If the calculated basis turns out to be the correct basis, a perfect price-protecting hedge is the result. If, however, the calculated basis is incorrect, there will be a slight gain or loss from the expected results, estimated earlier.
Basis variation usually represents an indentifiable pattern that repeats itself from year to year and is most explainable by economicfactors. Hence accurate estimating of basis for some future point in time, even if the basis varies during that time, is the key to successful hedging.
In actual practice, the basis for par-delivery area represented is the futures contract tends to narrow toward zero as the delivery time for the futures contract approaches. The reason for this is simple. If on April 1, the cash price of the commodity was 5 cents below the April futures price, merchants would buy the actual commodity, sell egg futures for April, and make a profit. As they did this, the two prices would rapidly converge until the basis had narrowed and this profit opportunity had disappeared. This convergence in the delivery month means the futures price reflects actual values in the cash market.
There are two basic methods of determining the basis for any local market :
a. Historic price relationships
b. Actual cost calculation
To calculate the basis with the first method, one must obtain past price data for the location represented by the futures prices at that time of the year for this delivery month and compare those prices to one's local market prices for the same time period. Hence, if one were calculating the basis for fresh, shell eggs at Kansas City, Missouri, he might find that Kansas City prices have normally been 45 cents a case (or I 1/2 cen cents a dozen) below the prices paid at Chicago, Illinois. The basis would be 45 cents a case.
To calculate the basis with the second method, one must obtain the actual cost of transporting the eggs from a local market to the location represented by the futures contract. Hence, to calculate the basis between Kansas City and Chicago, via the cost method, one should estimate the transportation cost (including breakage and special handling), interest charges, insurance charges, locational allowance and the like.
There are many factors that can cause the basis for any local market to vary over a period of time. These include such things as changes in local supply-demand factors, changes in local production-handling costs, the anticipated size of future production, governmental programs, and local market receipts.
In established markets, basis patterns between markets tend to repeat themselves from one year to the next. Hence, experienced traders know that their local basis tends to be at a certain level during particular times of the year. The repetition of these patterns from one year to the next makes basis prediction more reliable than price predictions.
AI 요약
연구주제
연구배경
연구방법
연구결과
주요내용
목차
Summary
국문초록
Ⅰ. 先物市場(Futures Market)
Ⅱ. 鷄卵先物去來(Futures Trading of Fresh, Shell Eggs) - 美國의 例
