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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
전해정 (성결대학교)
저널정보
한국주거환경학회 주거환경 住居環境 통권 제13권 제4호 (통권 제30호)
발행연도
2015.12
수록면
41 - 51 (11page)

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초록· 키워드

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This study examines the effects of low birthrate and aging populations on housing prices by setting proxy variables and examined the variables as a panel data across districts. Low birthrate is proxied through youth dependency ratio and number of newborns, aging through old dependency ratio, liquidity through mortgage loans, housing supply through housing permit performance, economic growth and income growth through unemployment rate, and finally, housing prices through housing transaction price index. Time frame of the data analysis was set from 1Q of 2010 through 4Q of 2013, and spatial scope was set to 25 districts within Seoul.
Empirical analysis results show that youth dependency ratio and number of births has a positive impact (+) on housing prices, while old dependency ratio has a negative impact (-). 1% decrease in youth dependency ratio approximately translated to 3.18% decrease in housing prices, and 1% increase in old dependency ratio effected housing prices by a decrease of approximately 1.18%. Additionally, housing permit performance has a positive effect (+) and mortgage loans has a negative effect (-) which were different from the expected results. The study determines that this was one of the root causes of decline in housing prices during the global financial crisis.

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Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 선행연구 고찰
Ⅲ. 분석모형
Ⅳ. 실증분석
Ⅴ. 결론
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2016-595-002224361