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[학술저널]

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성현곤(Chungbuk National University)

DOI : 10.17208/jkpa.2016.06.51.3.163

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초록

Globalization sometimes provides unexpected negative effects on public health because of the outbreak and proliferation of avian infectious diseases resulting from more active inter-national movement of people and goods. Seoul had experienced the MERS(Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). During its outbreak and proliferation, citizens tried to avoid its potential infection among people. One of its responses was to take less rail transit. This study is aimed at identifying the impacts of the outbreak and proliferation of MERS on rail transit ridership by employing and analyzing the ARIMAX(autoregressive integrated moving average with external factors) modeling, based on daily rail transit ridership. Analysis results demonstrate the time, size, and durability of people"s response for the MERS. First, the response time for the MERS’s outbreak is differentiated by travel purpose. Transit ridership at the afternoon hours decreased right after it occur. However, its decrease appeared when its proliferation become severer. Second, the reduction size in rail ridership was biggest when its number of infected people more increase. Third, its impact was more persistent at the afternoon hours than anytime else, even though it was not everlasting.

목차

Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 문헌고찰
Ⅲ. 분석 자료와 기술통계
Ⅳ. 분석 절차와 최적 모형 선정
Ⅴ. 결과 비교와 해석
Ⅵ. 요약 및 결론
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