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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2015.1
- 수록면
- 339 - 348 (10page)
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Background and Purpose Several risk scores have been developed to predict mortality in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We aimed to systematically determine the performance of published prognostic tools.
Methods We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for prognostic models (published between 2004 and April 2014) used in predicting early mortality (<6 months) afer ICH. We evaluated the discrimination performance of the tools through a random-efects meta-analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) or c-statistic. We evaluated the following components of the study validity: study design, collection of prognostic variables, treatment pathways, and missing data.
Results We identifed 11 articles (involving 41,555 patients) reporting on the accuracy of 12 diferent tools for predicting mortality in ICH. Most studies were either retrospective or posthoc analyses of prospectively collected data; all but one produced validation data. Te Hemphill-ICH score had the largest number of validation cohorts (9 studies involving 3,819 patients) within our systematic review and showed good performance in 4 countries, with a pooled AUC of 0.80 [95% confdence interval (CI)=0.77–0.85]. We identifed several modifed versions of the Hemphill-ICH score, with the ICH-Grading Scale (GS) score appearing to be the most promising variant, with a pooled AUC across four studies of 0.87 (95% CI=0.84– 0.90). Subgroup testing found statistically signifcant diferences between the AUCs obtained in studies involving Hemphill-ICH and ICH-GS scores (p=0.01).
Conclusions Our meta-analysis evaluated the performance of 12 ICH prognostic tools and found greater supporting evidence for 2 models (Hemphill-ICH and ICH-GS), with generally good performance overall.
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참고문헌 (24)
참고문헌 신청
Perry JJ / 2011 / Emergency physicians’ management of transient ischemic attack and desired sensitivity of a clinical decision rule for stroke in three countries / CJEM 13:19~27
Agarwal D / 2010 / P-152. Prognostic accuracy of the iCh score on initial evaluation of patients presenting with non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage; a systematic review a
Ariesen MJ / 2005 / Applicability and relevance of models that predict short term outcome after intracerebral haemorrhage / J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry 76 : 839 ~ 844
Austin PC / 2012 / Interpreting the concordance statistic of a logistic regression model: relation to the variance and odds ratio of a continuous explanatory variable / BMC M
Bushnell CD / 2001 / Retrospective assessment of initial stroke severity: comparison of the NIH Stroke Scale and the Canadian Neurological Scale /
Agarwal D / 2010 / P-152. Prognostic accuracy of the iCh score on initial evaluation of patients presenting with non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage; a systematic review a
Ariesen MJ / 2005 / Applicability and relevance of models that predict short term outcome after intracerebral haemorrhage / J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry 76 : 839 ~ 844
Austin PC / 2012 / Interpreting the concordance statistic of a logistic regression model: relation to the variance and odds ratio of a continuous explanatory variable / BMC M
Bushnell CD / 2001 / Retrospective assessment of initial stroke severity: comparison of the NIH Stroke Scale and the Canadian Neurological Scale /
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