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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
저널정보
한국예방수의학회 예방수의학회지 예방수의학회지 제43권 제4호
발행연도
2019.1
수록면
221 - 226 (6page)

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초록· 키워드

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The goal of the current study was to estimate the contribution of poultry farm vehicle movement frequency to the 2014 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemic using both global and local regression models. On one hand, the global model did not consider the hypothesis that a relationship between predictors and the outcome variable might vary across the country (spatially homogeneous), while on the other hand, the local model considered that there was spatial heterogeneity within the country. The HPAI outbreak status in each province was used as a dependent variable and the number of poultry farm vehicle movements within each province (within variable), the number of poultry farm vehicle movement from one province to another province (outbound variable), the number of poultry farm vehicle movements from other provinces to one province (inbound variable), and the number of poultry farms in each province were included in the model as independent variables. The results of a global model were as follows: estimated coefficient of the log-transformed within variable was 0.73, that of the log-transformed outbound variable was 2.04, that of the log-transformed inbound variable was 0.74, and that of the number of poultry farms was 1.08. Only the number of poultry farms was a statistically significant variable (p-value < 0.001). The AIC score of the global model was 1397.5. The results of the local model were as follows: estimated median coefficient of the log-transformed within variable was 0.75, that of the log-transformed outbound variable was 2.54, that of the log-transformed inbound variable was 0.60, and that of the number of poultry farms was 0.07. The local model’s AIC score was 1382.2. The results of our study indicate that a local model would provide a better understanding of the relationship between HPAI outbreak status and poultry farm vehicle movements than that provided by a global model.

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참고문헌 (15)

참고문헌 신청
Cao Q / 2018 / Study on PM2.5 pollution and the mortality due to lung cancer in China based on geographic weighted regression model / BMC Public Health 18(1):925~934 google schola Fasanmi OG / 2016 / An evaluation of biosecurity compliance levels and assessment of associated risk factors for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infection of live-bird-markets, Nigeria and Egypt / Acta Trop 164:321~328 google schola Kala AK / 2017 / A comparison of least squares regression and geographically weighted regression modeling of West Nile virus risk based on environmental parameters / Peer J 5:e3070 google schola Kim WH / 2018 / Risk factors associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N8 outbreaks on broiler duck farms in South Korea / Transbound Emerg Dis 65(5):1329~1338 google schola Kwon JH / 2019 / Different pathogenicity of two strains of clade 2.3.4.4c H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses bearing different PA and NS gene in domestic ducks / Virology 530:11~18 google schola

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