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커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
In Principle, the distriction should be understood between projections and forecasts. When the author or user of a projection is willing to describe it as indicating the most likely population at a give date, then he has made a forecast. Population change since 1960 has been reviewed briefly in order to forecast the population of Korea in the year 2,000 which is a leading factor in long term national development plan for which Korea Institute for Population and Health (KIPH) has been participated since 1983.
The author of this paper introduced the population forecast prepared for the long term national development plan and an attempt of comparisons with other forecasts such as D.P. Smith's, T. Frejka's, Economic Planning Board's (EPB), UN's and S.B. Lee's was made. Those six forecasts of Korean future population in year 2,000 varried from 48.5 million to 50.0 million due to the base population and assumption of fertility and mortality however the range of total population size is not large enough.
Taking four forecasts such as KIPH, EPB, UN, and Lee based on 1980 population census results and latest data of fertility and mortality, KIPH and UN forecast are close in total population size even though there was a slight difference in fertility and mortality assumptions. The smallest size of total population was shown by S.B. Lee (see Table 13) although the difference between KIPH and Lee was approximately one million which is two percent of total population in year 2,000.
As a summary of conclusion the author pointed out that one can take anyone of forecasts prepared by different body because size and proportion wise of the Korean population until early 1990s can not be different much and new population projections must be provided by using 1985 population census data and other latest fertility and mortality information collected by Korea Institute for Population and Health and Economic Planning Board in forth comming year.
The author of this paper introduced the population forecast prepared for the long term national development plan and an attempt of comparisons with other forecasts such as D.P. Smith's, T. Frejka's, Economic Planning Board's (EPB), UN's and S.B. Lee's was made. Those six forecasts of Korean future population in year 2,000 varried from 48.5 million to 50.0 million due to the base population and assumption of fertility and mortality however the range of total population size is not large enough.
Taking four forecasts such as KIPH, EPB, UN, and Lee based on 1980 population census results and latest data of fertility and mortality, KIPH and UN forecast are close in total population size even though there was a slight difference in fertility and mortality assumptions. The smallest size of total population was shown by S.B. Lee (see Table 13) although the difference between KIPH and Lee was approximately one million which is two percent of total population in year 2,000.
As a summary of conclusion the author pointed out that one can take anyone of forecasts prepared by different body because size and proportion wise of the Korean population until early 1990s can not be different much and new population projections must be provided by using 1985 population census data and other latest fertility and mortality information collected by Korea Institute for Population and Health and Economic Planning Board in forth comming year.
목차
Ⅰ. 緖論
Ⅱ. 人口變動 推移
Ⅲ. 人口展望
Ⅳ. 諸 人口豫測(展望)의 比較
Ⅴ. 結語
參考文獻
Appendix
(Abstract)
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