Nomograms to Predict the Individual Survival of Patients with Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Hepatectomy

Junyi Shen; Linye He; Chuan Li; Tianfu Wen; Weixia Chen; Changli Lu; Lvnan Yan; Bo Li; Jiayin Yang

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자료유형: 학술저널

저자정보: Junyi Shen Linye He Chuan Li Tianfu Wen Weixia Chen Changli Lu Lvnan Yan Bo Li Jiayin Yang

저널정보: 거트앤리버 발행위원회 Gut and Liver Gut and Liver 제11권 제5호

발행연도: 2017.1

수록면: 684 - 692 (9page)

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Background/Aims: Solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a subgroup of HCCs. We aimed to establish nomograms for predicting the survival of solitary HCC patients after hepatectomy. Methods: A total of 538 solitary HCC patients were randomly classified into training and validation sets. A Cox model was used to identify predictors of overall survival (OS) in the training set. A nomogram was generated based on these predictors and was validated using the validation set. Results: Tumor size, microvascular invasion, and major vascular invasion were significantly associated with OS in the training set. Nomograms were developed based on these predictors in the multivariate analysis. The C-index was 0.75 for the OS nomogram and 0.72 for the recurrence-free survival nomogram. Compared to the index of conventional staging systems for predicting survival (0.71 for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, 0.66 for the seventh American Joint Committee on Cancer, 0.68 for Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, and 0.70 for Hong Kong Liver Cancer), the index of the OS nomogram was significantly higher. Moreover, the calibration curve fitted well between the predicted and observed survival rate. Similarly, in the validation set, the nomogram discrimination was superior to those of the four staging systems (p<0.001). Conclusions: The nomograms demonstrated good discrimination performance in predicting 3- and 5-year survival rates for solitary HCCs after hepatectomy.

#Nomograms #Prognosis #Carcinoma #hepatocellular #Surgery

참고문헌 (39)

참고문헌 신청

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Yang P / 2016 / Nomograms for pre- and postoperative prediction of long-term survival for patients who underwent hepatectomy for multiple hepatocellular carcinomas / Ann Surg 263:778~786

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